How We Work Solutions Lucerna The Index About Book a Growth Audit
Overview Outcomes Features Incrementality MMM Attribution AI Insights Integrations Security Process Roadmap FAQ
Measurement

Lucerna™ — The guiding light for growth.

Lucerna means "the guiding light": a measurement layer built to show which signals are real, which budgets deserve more, and which stories your data can actually defend.

Private Alpha v1 Internal access only

Public tier access begins with Core in Q3 2026.

Request Alpha Access View Roadmap
Attribution + Incrementality + MMM Built for Shopify + DTC stacks Private alpha v1
Overview

Turn noise into signal.

Lucerna™ unifies your marketing data and ties it to outcomes you can defend. As the guiding light for growth decisions, it combines attribution with incrementality testing and modeling so you can fund what actually drives revenue, then repeat what works.

Attribution

Understand the journey. See which channels and touchpoints drive real conversions.

Incrementality

Prove what caused lift. Geo experiments and holdouts that separate signal from noise.

Media Mix Modeling

Plan the next dollar with privacy resilience. Forecast marginal returns at a channel level.

Outcomes

Decisions that move faster than your market.

Cut waste by identifying non-incremental spend.

Reallocate budget based on marginal returns.

Increase learning velocity with a test-and-scale loop.

Align stakeholders with one source of truth.

Before

Fragmented dashboards, conflicting metrics, no confidence in what's working.

After

One dashboard + one weekly memo + one reallocation plan.

Features

Everything you need to manage the next dollar.

Multi-touch attribution

Compare models and see which channels contribute to conversions across the full funnel.

Path-to-purchase insights

Visualize the customer journey from first touch to purchase with time-to-convert analysis.

Creative intelligence

Cluster creative by hooks, angles, and formats to understand what resonates and why.

Incrementality testing

Geo and cell split tests with holdouts that prove true lift, not claimed conversions.

Always-on lift monitoring

Continuous measurement that catches performance shifts before they become problems.

MMM scenario planning

Model budget shifts before you make them. See projected returns by channel and spend level.

Budget simulator

Marginal ROI curves that show exactly where your next dollar should go.

Weekly performance memo

Automated insight summaries and reallocation recommendations delivered to your inbox.

Incrementality

Measure lift, not clicks.

Incrementality answers the only question that matters: "Did this spend create new revenue, or just claim it?" Lucerna™ designs and reads geo/cell split tests and holdouts, then turns the results into a simple budget decision.

  • Geo experiments and holdouts
  • iROAS and lift readouts
  • "Scale / Hold / Cut" recommendations
Deliverable: Incrementality Readout (PDF)
Control
Test
Lift
Media Mix Modeling

Plan budgets when tracking gets messy.

MMM helps you forecast marginal returns at a channel level, even in privacy-restricted environments. Use it for quarterly planning, media mix shifts, and executive-level clarity.

  • Scenario modeling
  • Marginal ROI curves
  • Seasonality controls
Meta
$4.2 ROAS
Google
$3.4 ROAS
TikTok
$2.6 ROAS
Email
$6.1 ROAS
Attribution

Understand the journey without worshiping last-click.

Lucerna™ supports multiple attribution views so teams can compare narratives and align on a working model. The goal isn't a perfect model. It's faster, better decisions.

  • Last-click vs multi-touch comparison
  • Assisted conversions and time-to-convert
  • Channel and creative contribution views
First Touch
Multi-Touch
Last Click
AI Insights

AI where it actually matters.

We use AI to shorten the loop between idea, test, and insight. Lucerna™ surfaces patterns, flags anomalies, and helps generate the next round of experiments.

Creative variant clustering

Group creatives by hooks and angles to see what messaging resonates across audiences.

Auto-generated hypotheses

Get testing ideas based on performance patterns, seasonal trends, and competitor signals.

Anomaly detection

Get alerted when metrics break pattern, before small issues become big problems.

Weekly insights memo

Summarized performance highlights and recommended next actions, delivered automatically.

Integrations

Plug into your existing stack.

Connect your store, ads, and analytics. Keep your tools. Own your data.

Warehouse-first compatible (BigQuery / Snowflake) for advanced teams.

Data & Privacy

Your data stays yours.

Read-only access where possible

Data portability (exportable)

Consent-aware tracking guidance

Role-based access

"We build dashboards for decisions, not surveillance."

Process

From setup to signal in weeks.

1

Connect

Data sources + taxonomy. We plug into your existing stack and map every signal.

2

Validate

Tracking integrity and baseline. We audit your data before trusting any of it.

3

Measure

Attribution + incrementality plan. Experiments designed, tests running, lift measured.

4

Act

Weekly memo + budget reallocation cadence. Signal becomes action becomes growth.

Deliverables: Dashboard + Memo + 90-day testing roadmap

Roadmap

Private alpha now. Public tiers on the horizon.

Lucerna™ v1 is currently in private alpha with internal access only. Public availability will roll out by tier as the product matures.

The roadmap keeps the promise simple: start with a clean guiding light across your channels, graduate to modeled incrementality signals, then prove causality with experiment-calibrated planning.

Lowest Tier

Lucerna™ Core

One dashboard. Every channel. No more tab switching.

Available Q3 2026

Private alpha v1: internal access only

  • Shopify real-time sync
  • Meta, Google & TikTok ingestion
  • Blended MER dashboard
  • First / last / linear attribution
  • Spend & revenue alerts
  • Weekly performance memo
Request Alpha Access

Public access target: Q3 2026.

Built as the first public guiding-light layer for unified channel visibility.

Middle Tier

Lucerna™ Lumen

Modeled incrementality signals. No experiments required.

Available Q1 2027

Private alpha v1: internal access only

  • Everything in Core, plus:
  • Data-driven MTA model
  • Passive iROAS estimation
  • Halo effect modeling
  • Budget scenario simulator
  • Executive summary view
Request Alpha Access

Public access target: Q1 2027.

Designed to add modeled iROAS estimates and budget simulation after Core has enough signal.

Top Tier

Lucerna™ Pro

Experimental proof. Every budget decision backed by causal data.

Available Q3 2027

Private alpha v1: internal access only

  • Everything in Lumen, plus:
  • Geo-holdout testing engine
  • Test orchestration & automation
  • Calibration feedback loop
  • Creative intelligence suite
  • iMMM scenario planning
  • White-label reporting
  • Priority support + Slack channel
Request Alpha Access

Public access target: Q3 2027.

Private Alpha v1

Internal access only

Lucerna™ is being refined inside Refractive's operating system before public release.

The alpha focuses on signal quality, measurement workflows, and decision-ready reporting before external tier access opens in 2026 and 2027.

Request Alpha Access

Roadmap Feature Comparison

Feature Core Q3 2026 Lumen Q1 2027 Pro Q3 2027
Data & Connections
Shopify real-time sync✓✓✓
Meta / Google / TikTok ingestion✓✓✓
UTM tracking layer✓✓✓
13-month historical data window✓✓✓
Geographic order tagging✓✓✓
Dashboard & Reporting
Blended MER dashboard✓✓✓
Channel-level spend vs. revenue trending✓✓✓
New vs. returning customer split✓✓✓
Spend / revenue / ROAS alerts✓✓✓
Weekly performance memo✓✓✓
Executive summary view—✓✓
Shareable client report snapshots—✓✓
White-label reporting——✓
Attribution
First / last / linear click attribution✓✓✓
Platform vs. Lucerna™ ROAS comparison✓✓✓
Data-driven MTA model (Shopify-calibrated)—✓✓
View-through vs. click-through weighting—✓✓
Halo effect / cross-channel influence—✓✓
Incrementality
Passive iROAS estimates (modeled)—✓✓
Natural experiment detection—✓✓
Confidence bands per channel estimate—✓✓
"Test recommended" channel flags—✓✓
Geo-pair recommendation engine——✓
Power analysis calculator——✓
2-cell and 3-cell test design——✓
Meta geo-exclusion API automation——✓
Google geo-exclusion API automation——✓
Manual DMA setup guides (TikTok, YouTube)——✓
Live test monitoring dashboard——✓
Post-test iROAS + incrementality factor——✓
Calibration feedback loop——✓
Budget Intelligence
Diminishing returns curves—✓✓
Budget scenario simulator—✓✓
Marginal ROAS by channel—✓✓
iMMM scenario planning (experiment-calibrated)——✓
Forward-looking budget allocation by marginal ROI——✓
Creative Intelligence
Hook rate / hold rate / thumbstop rate——✓
Creative fatigue detection——✓
Spend-weighted creative iCPA——✓
AI creative tagging (no manual labeling)——✓
Creative-to-test correlation——✓
Support
Standard support✓✓✓
Priority support——✓
Dedicated Slack channel——✓
No fluff. Just clarity.

Lucerna FAQs

Lucerna™ v1 is currently private alpha with internal access only. Selected partner workflows may inform the roadmap, but the standalone tiers are not publicly available yet.

Not yet. Lucerna™ is in private alpha v1 with internal access only. Core is planned for Q3 2026, Lumen for Q1 2027, and Pro for Q3 2027.

We design geo or cell-based split tests where one group sees your ads and another doesn't. By comparing the conversion rates between groups, we measure true incremental lift, not just what the ad platform claims credit for.

Attribution tracks individual user journeys. MMM looks at aggregate channel-level performance using statistical modeling. It's especially useful in privacy-restricted environments and for budget planning, since it doesn't depend on cookies or pixels.

Read-only access to your ad platforms, analytics, and Shopify store. We request the minimum permissions needed and never make changes to your live accounts without explicit approval.

Yes. All data is yours. Dashboards, reports, and raw exports are fully portable. If you ever leave, you take everything with you. No lock-in, no data hostage situations.

During private alpha, signal timelines depend on internal data readiness and the measurement workflow being tested. Public onboarding expectations will be published as each tier approaches release.

Absolutely. Lucerna™ is additive, not a replacement. It plugs into your existing stack (Shopify, GA4, Meta, Google, Klaviyo, etc.) and provides a unified layer on top. Keep your tools. Own your data. We make it talk.

Triple Whale is attribution. Lucerna™ measures whether your attribution is true. We layer modeled incrementality estimates and geo-holdout experiments on top of attribution data so you know which numbers to trust — and which to question.

No. Lucerna™ is being designed to translate complex measurement into decision-ready guidance. The goal is to make attribution, modeling, and experiment planning usable without a dedicated data science team.

Public setup timelines will be released with each tier. Current private-alpha access is internal only while the product, data flows, and reporting cadence are validated.

The roadmap is designed to progress from Core to Lumen to Pro as the measurement layer matures. Upgrade paths will be defined before Core becomes publicly available in Q3 2026.

There is no public subscription to cancel while Lucerna™ is in private alpha. Data portability remains a product principle for the public tiers.

Follow the signal.

Lucerna™ is the guiding light we are building for teams that need to know what's real before they reallocate the next dollar.

Request Alpha Access View Roadmap